Questions without settled answers.
Geopolitics, history and technology, examined with established analytical frameworks and forecasts specific enough to be wrong.
Named for the curved staff a Roman augur used to mark out a region of sky before reading what passed through it.
Method
Three stages, published alongside every conclusion.
Ground it
Claims meet the historical record before they meet intuition.
Name the framework
The lens is chosen and its assumptions stated before the conclusion.
Break it
One assumption varied at a time. Whatever collapses was load-bearing.
Forecasts carry a probability and a resolution date. When one misses, the error is traced to the step that produced it.
Questions
A sample of what gets asked. The range is wider.
Production
One person and an AI stack. Published, because auditable reasoning needs an auditable process.
The machine owns the middle. The question and the final cut stay human.
Reading
The frameworks these run on, and the point at which each one breaks.
Changing World Order
Reserve-currency powers rise and decline through a repeating debt cycle.
Animal Farm
Power edits the stated rule rather than repealing it.
Why Nations Fail
Prosperity tracks whether institutions include or extract.
Common questions
What is The Lituus?
A channel examining open questions in geopolitics, history and technology using established analytical frameworks, counterfactual reasoning and explicit forecasts, for readers who prefer a calibrated view to a confident one.
How are the forecasts scored?
Each carries a stated probability and a resolution date. Outcomes are reviewed in public, and a miss is traced back to the specific step in the reasoning that produced it rather than blamed on circumstance.
What does "lituus" mean?
The curved staff carried by a Roman augur. It was used to mark out a region of sky before interpreting what passed through it. The instrument produced no answers; it imposed a structure on the question.
Contact
Thirty minutes, for AI production workflow, foresight work, or collaboration.
Anything else, email is faster.